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Christmas 2011 Weather Forecast - Milwaukee, WI

Dec 10, 2011
Will Milwaukee, Madison, Chicago and the rest of the upper Midwest see a white Christmas? Forecast indications have advertised a possibility of a stormy pattern on the horizon but the amount of confidence is rather low at this point.

The weather for December has been a rather mild one. Snow has fallen across the northern and central part of Wisconsin, but no major winter storms have materialized. I will update this blog regarding the forecast as we move forward towards the Christmas Holiday.

Christmas Weather Forecast - December 14, 2011

A low will be moving through the area today that will produce rain and even some thunderstorms, but no snow is expected. All eyes though turn to next week Monday|Tuesday with a possible snowstorm aiming towards Wisconsin possibly affecting Madison, Milwaukee and Chicago. In my opinion, there is still too much uncertainty.

The ECMWF forecast model shows a low moving across Wisconsin for next week but this will bring warmer temps decreasing the chance for snow. The other models have a weak low further south of the region. A white Christmas is still possible, but more time is needed for the models to come into better agreement.

Thursday December 15 - Forecast Update

The 12Z GFS continues to show a possible snowstorm moving across Wisconsin and Illinois that would affect the Chicago and Milwaukee areas sometime next Monday or Tuesday. The other question will be how much warm air will be drawn northward into the region. This may limit the amount of snow. The ECWMF and Canadian models continue to offer different solutions as well. I'm going to hold off on updating until this weekend. Hopefully the models will settle down and become more stable to offer a reliable forecast for the week of Christmas.

Christmas Weather Forecast - December 17, 2011

The snowstorm projected for the 20|21st is looking less likely for the Madison, Milwaukee and Chicago areas. The global models continue to shift the system further southeast of Wisconsin. The latest NAM model is forecasting heavy snow accmulations across Kansas, but the storm loses some of it's strength as it heads towards the Wisconsin vicinity.

NAM Model - Snowfall Forecast

Christmas Weather Forecast - December 20, 2011

The latest guidance is indicating that much of Wisconsin - Madison and Milwaukee will not see a white Christmas this year in 2011. The blizzard that caused 12-18 inches of snow across Kansas will weaken and miss most of Wisconsin. The weather will continue to behave until after the new year with an increasing chance of snow for the 2011-2012 winter season.

Christmas Weather Forecast - December 22, 2011

Milwaukee, Madison and Chicago will not see a white Christmas this year in 2011. The weather pattern will not support any snowstorms for next 7 days. Temperatures should be mild in the mid to upper 30's across southern Wisconsin. This will be my last blog post regarding the Christmas Weather Forecast for Wisconsin and Illinois. Merry Christmas!


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