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Midwest Storm - November 5-7, 2011

Oct 31, 2011
GFS 500mb - Midwest StormThe GFS and European models are showing a deep mid level trough of low pressure forecasted to ride up into the Midwest states this weekend on the 5th - 7th. While it's too early to tell what may be in store, the GFS model has been advertising the intensity of this for quite some time.

The 500mb plot shows a strong 90 knot jet max plowing through the region. The computer models will continue to offer different solutions since the jet energy is well out to sea. The upper air network will have to sample the full complexity of this system to determine where it will go and how strong it will be.

This system could produce rain and more likely strong winds across the area. Severe weather is even a possibility but moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico is looking unlikely. I'll add more updates on this impending storm later tonight.

Tuesday, November 1st

The models continue to advertise a strong low to move into the northern plains this weekend. The difference today is the models have shown the system to slow down and track a little bit northwest from a earlier track over the Great Lakes. Also, severe weather is looking unlikely with gulf moisture not being able to be ingested into the region.

The result will be heavy snow acorss the Dakotas, rain and strong winds across the upper Midwest. The track and strengh remains uncertain this far out.

Wednesday, November 2nd

Not much real change today with the upcoming storm. In fact, it appears this system won't be a monster like some of the models were predicting three days ago. The storm won't have much gulf moisture to work with so heavy rains and severe weather won't be an issue. The only thing I see is the possibility for some snowfall accumulations in the northern plains. Everyone else will have a shot at some precipitation and gusty winds. A wind advisory may be needed over the weekend for parts of the upper Midwest but even that is in question. More updates tomorrow and I'll add some computer model images as well.

Thursday, November 3rd

NAM - Temperature ForecastToday the updated models continue to bring a strong low to the northern plains with some chances of accumulating snowfall in the Dakotas. Everywhere else many will see a chance of rain but no severe weather is anticipated due to continued lack of gulf moisture. This morning's NAM model shows mild air (yellow color) being drawn into the upper Midwest with temperatures expected to be in the 50's and 60's. The NAM model still shows a powerful jet max (noted in purple) to move through the region that will help intensify the low. The big story with this system will be the winds. It's looking likely this storm will not a have a significant impact across Wisconsin and surrounding states.NAM - 500mb - November 2011

Saturday, November 5th

Today, the storm system is looking to be not as eventful compared to a week ago. Wind advisories have been issued across Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota and Dakotas. Snow is expected up in western North Dakota. Overall if anything drastically changes, I'll probably close out this blog for now.


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