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Storm Chasing Forecast - May 2013 Anticipation

May 12, 2013
GFS-Instability-May 2013Storm chasers might breathe a sight of relief thanks to an increasing threat of severe weather arriving upon the Great Plains later this weekend (May 17-20).

This is usually a stressful time for storm chasers. I'm sure many have had countless hours looking at computer models, hoping for a stormy pattern during their storm chasing vacation. When the extended forecast looks favorable, then takes a turn for the worse, it can obviously cause an emotional roller coaster. Many U.S. and international storm chasers risk spending hundreds of dollars and failing to see any storms and come back home nothing to show for it.

The lack of tornadoes in 2013 has been rare and essentially the plains have been shut down since May of 2012. At this point in 2013, the U.S. has experienced the lowest number of tornadoes going back to 2005. As mentioned above, there is some hope in the offering.

GFS-300mb-May 2013The global models are now forecast to bring a southwest flow to the four corners region of Colorado, New Mexico. While the trough isn't expected to be deep, it will help increase the instability and low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. However, the models will continue to fluctuate with the mid-level pattern the next few days and I wouldn't be surprised if additional flies in the ointment pop up. Either case, Stay Tuned!


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